So 200 prospects in month X have become 40
opportunities in month Y. It's time to analyse those projects
and see if they're viable.
Analysing starts with the client's needs, not your capabilities. What is it
they really need? What will benefit them most may not be
what they're asking for: marketing clients often say 'more leads' when what
they really need is more profit. Many will drop out (about one in six, if
your average 15% probability assigned at stage 2 was realistic.) If it's lower,
maybe you're approaching the wrong prospects back in stage 1. If it's higher
- great!
Stage 3 is about playing with assumptions and probabilities. Maybe one 15%
project at £150K is actually a £50K project you're 80% certain
to get, because there's nobody else in town who can execute. Talk to the client,
check availability of resources. And when you're happy - let's say you've
been invited to tender and there are only two competitors in the pitch - raise
the probability above 30% and move it to stage 4: developing the value proposition.